Recent Tags:economy (1-10)
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“黑金”的冬天 | “预言我们鄂尔多斯房市会崩盘的人很多，但等到他们死掉时，鄂尔多斯的房市也不会垮。” | china economy | 3 months ago | |
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从茅台和猪肉涨幅看贫富差距 | 李迅雷:首先声明，这不是一篇学术论文，故不用劳驾与我商榷。不过，我也不想调侃当今的贫富差距现象，只是想通过对过去10年茅台和猪肉的涨价案例来探讨一下将来中国的贫富差距该如何缩小的问题。 | smart analysis, simple solution - head start theory. | china economy | 1 year ago |
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Save Greece, Protect Germany | China is to the world as Germany is to Europe. Industries in both countries are much better equipped to compete in export markets than are most of their rivals. That is due in part to fixed exchange rates that they zealously protect. Both countries tend to see their advantage as the result of their own moral superiority: They save; others spend too much. Germany’s fixed exchange rate is the euro zone, which legally includes 16 countries but in practice includes a number of others that seek to tie their currencies to the euro. It is enshrined in treaties and laws that assume that no country that adopts the euro can ever change its mind. ...... China has been trying to slow its own economy, but the fixed exchange rate regime has made that a lot harder. By tying itself to the dollar, it effectively appointed Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, to run Chinese monetary policy. | china economy europe germany | 1 year, 9 months ago | |
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A Greek Tragedy | At its conception, many economists felt that the participants would be first and foremost Germany, and then France, the Benelux countries, Austria, and some of the Scandinavian countries. It was hoped that Italy would be able to join, but that was by no means considered a certainty. The peripheral countries of Portugal and Spain were considered long shots and Greece wasn't even on the radar. | europe economy | 1 year, 11 months ago | |
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The EU Debt Crisis and How to Profit From It | Twin Debt Bombs Due To Detonate In July The pressure to devise some solution that calms markets is considerable. In July: Spain Bond Sale Spain needs to sell about €30 bln in bonds to avoid default. It is in better shape than Greece, but that won’t matter if a Greek default has sent borrowing rates soaring for its fellow PIIGS bloc members. That means a Greek default in April or May makes a Spanish one in July far more likely. U.S. Tidal Wave of Mortgage Rates Resets and Defaults In the US, July 2010 begins a wave of residential mortgage rates resetting higher on scale not seen since…late 2008 (scene of our last market meltdown). As the below chart shows, 2009 was a lull in this storm during which rate resets fell to multi-year lows and took some pressure off of mortgage default rates (which have remained brisk nonetheless). | economy finance | 1 year, 11 months ago | |
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珠三角99%企业缺工严重 廉价劳动力时代不复返 | 尽管这些年珠三角地区企业的工资标准几经调整提高，但是1000多元的月收入对于现在的农民工来说，已经没有太大吸引力，“民工荒”将成为制约珠三角企业进一步发展的最大因素，并将加速珠三角企业倒闭或转移步伐。 他说，随着国家惠农政策的不断出台，越来越多的第一代或第二代农民工纷纷选择回家种田或创业；与此同时，在国际国内大环境影响下，越来越多的沿海企业开始向内地转移，与珠三角地区接壤的江西、湖南、四川等地成为了这些企业的主要承接地，作为珠三角地区农民工主要来源地的这些地区的农民，现在在家门口就能够实行就地就业。 | china economy | 2 years, 1 month ago | |
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Stocks Higher? Famed Investor Says Don't Bet on It | Plenty, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of giant bond manager Pimco. The investor says the recovery may be gaining steam but is no different than a kid who eats too much candy at one of the birthday parties his 6-year-old daughter attends. | economy pimco | 2 years, 1 month ago | |
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关于2010年的不只几句话 | 对于2010年的中国经济我比很多人要谨慎，但这和GDP增长速度无关。事实上，我认为2010年中国继续保持8%以上的高速增长如同让一辆时速 200公里的阿斯顿马丁靠惯性不加油滑行100码一样简单。但这恰恰是问题所在。真正严峻的挑战在于在高速运动中“调结构”，也就是说要在保持GDP增长的同时转变GDP的构成，降低政府支出和政府主导的投资所占的比例，增加居民消费支出所占的比例。要想让百姓消费更多，理论上只有几种可能--让百姓（1）（在不牺牲就业的前提下）挣得更多；（2）纳税更少；（3）借得更多；（4）感觉自己有更多的钱；（5）感觉生活有保障；（6）（在不牺牲工资水平的情况下）更多就业。其中的每一种可能都对应着一定的政策寓意和内涵。 | economy | 2 years, 1 month ago | |
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饮鸩止渴的全球经济 | 银行业的高收益是在全球经济不景气的背景下取得的。全球经济的大蛋糕并没有迅速增大。那么银行业的巨额利润是怎么来的呢？有人赚钱还不得就有人花钱吗？正常的解释当然是银行业有可靠的盈利模式，例如从美联储获取零利率的短期贷款然后以3.5%的年利率投资国债。美国的金融行业拥有16.5万亿的债券，这项业务每扩张2%，就会增加超过3000亿美元的利润。这看起来真是天上掉馅饼式的好事儿，没有人受伤害，银行还能几十亿几百亿地赚钱。 大规模的货币创造大约是在一年以前发生的。通货膨胀很有可能会在2011 年开始显现，恶性工资物价螺旋上升可能会发生于2012 年，就像1970年代晚期出现的一样。通货膨胀会在2012年吓倒各国中央银行，促使他们大幅紧缩货币供应，从而捅破目前的资产价格泡沫。到那时候全球经济面临的问题将比当前更为严重：除了房产和金融两大行业对整个经济体系的拖累之外，政府部门也会受到严重冲击，全球经济将会经历一次美国1980年代早期经历的危机，情况甚至很可能比那次还要糟。 | economy 谢国忠 | 2 years, 2 months ago | |
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郭台铭与王传福的江湖恩怨 | 资本市场开始怀疑官司背后有其他势力介入，诉讼是否有必要再进行下去；与此同时，斜刺里杀出的巴菲特又力挺比亚迪，更让郭台铭容颜大失，怒斥“股神”是非不分——富士康与比亚迪的江湖恩怨被再度拉回公众视线。 “在与鸿海交集的行业领域中，比亚迪与我们差距太大。”郭台铭依然瞧不上比亚迪，但局面正在悄然改变——富士康过去的高速增长已经沦为记忆，比亚迪也非昔日的“吴下阿蒙”。 | china economy IT | 2 years, 8 months ago |
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